Written by Laurence Brahm - Published by South China Morning Post on 01/11/2005

“To turn history, if that is his intention, Mr Chen must win Beijing’s trust- an extremely difficult task”

Laurence Brahm

The New Year began with a faint beam of sunlight over the Taiwan Strait. The storm clouds had gathered in December, when Beijing announced anti-secession legislation aimed at the island. Then on January 2, me State Council's Taiwan Affairs Office surprised everyone by proposing to reinstate cross-strait charter flights for the Lunar New Year.

Late last year, Taipei indicated that it urgently wanted to see the return of the flights. On the surface, it was to aid Taiwan businesspeople returning home for the holiday. More significantly, it could signal a breakthrough in the political impasse and serve as a crucial step in reviving dialogue.

A Taiwan Affairs Office spokesman noted mat Taiwan officials had been pressing for the flights, adding: "It is the sincere hope of the mainland that they keep their word to create conditions for the charier planes to take off, so as to meet the strong aspirations of Taiwanese businessmen ... to return home for a family reunion."

Late last year, Taiwan's president, Chen Shui-bian, dropped an earlier idea to label the flights "international", and instead accepted the term "domestic" in mainland airport terminals and on the ticketing, reserving "cross-strait" for Taipei airport. This helped pave the way for a breakthrough.

But Beijing’s offer beats anything that Taipei could have imagined. The Taiwan Affairs Office spokesman said: "The mainland hopes that charter flights can be operated by airlines on both sides, providing direct routes to meet the needs of Taiwan businessmen in the mainland to save the time and operating costs of the airlines involved." Moreover, Beijing is proposing direct flights; without the need for a stopover at a third location.

In another breakthrough, the Taiwan Affairs Office "suggests that airlines across the s trait communicate directly over technical and business details", meaning that the carriers can bypass the bureaucratic baggage attached to official dialogue. The spokesman said that "procedures and related technical issues of the chartered flights should have been settled through the cross- strait negotiating mechanism, but we cannot get the talks going because of the reason known to all". That, of course, was a reference to Mr. Chen.

Beijing is still nagged by doubt over Mr. Chen's ulterior motives.

Does he really wish to promote an independence agenda, or now that he is secure in his last term as president, does he favor promoting integration? Such a twist could ensure his place in history.

For Beijing, the problem is Mr. Chen's inconsistency: it can not deal with someone it does not trust. His behavior may be conducive to Taiwan's street-brawling political atmosphere, but it cuts no ice with the ma inland government. To turn history, if that is his intention, Mr. Chen must win Beijing's trust – an extremely difficult task.

The proposal for direct flights should be interpreted as an important opportunity for Taiwan to promote dialogue. The Taiwan Affairs Office spokesman underlined this point: "The mainland h as also noticed that some opinion leaders and airline executives in Taiwan have expressed their willingness to come to the mainland for talks over the charter flights. We welcome them and are willing to exchange views."

By dispatching Taiwan's commercial carriers to discuss technical issues Mr. Chen has the opportunity to send back the right signals.

Resumption of direct flights (without a layover at a third location) is a positive move and a symbolic link with a route last flown when Chiang Kat-shek's troops fled in 1949.

Now, Taiwanese investors can fly this route, representing an initial step towards the resumption of dialogue.

This year, if Mr. Chen’s actions become consistent with his inferred intentions, it could serve as the next step.

Laurence Brahm is a global activist, international mediator, political columnist and author. He is the leading advocate of a fresh development paradigm - The Himalayan Consensus - an innovative approach to development.

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