Written by Laurence Brahm - Published by South China Morning Post on 11/23/2004

On November 10, exactly one month after this “double 10” speech, Taiwanese President Chen Shui-bian spoke again. This time before a meeting of his cabinet’s security council. He called for promoting cross-strait dialogue in the interest of regional peace and economic development.

Is this just another political ruse or is Mr. Chen presenting an olive branch to Beijing?

The State Council’s Taiwan Affairs Office labeled Mr. Chen as “insincere.” Are they fully aware of local Taiwan undercurrents possibly opening a window to change Mr. Chen’s position? Calm listening is now needed.

Mr. Chen called for “seeking long-term peace and development,” describing the last three years of his term as a “crucial opportunity that both sides should grasp” to “achieve long-term positive development and people’s livelihood,” words which sound more like Beijing than Taipei.

Mr. Chen rose to power four years ago on a pro-independence agenda, winning re-election this year by a thin margin. Playing to often extreme emotional currents is a mainstay of Taiwan’s politics. With three years left, Mr. Chen may be thinking twice about how history will remember him.

Labeled an independence dialogue, he may be a political pragmatist whose survival depends on changing agendas with opportunity. By profession he is a lawyer. Everybody knows how lawyers think.

As a pragmatist, he differs from his predecessor Lee Tung-hui, who remains an independence ideologue. Mr. Lee identifies himself more as Japanese than Chinese.

Mr. Chen’s Democratic Progressive Party no longer faces challenges of gaining power, but retaining it. This requires a delicate drift from a radical pro-independence line. To consolidate power the DPP requires a new mainstream agenda to address pro-unification business interests. On October 10, Mr. Chen suggested resuming cross-strait dialogue based on principles jointly agreed on in Hong Kong in 1992. Beijing initially dismissed this as insincere – with reason – because Mr. Chen’s speech contained contradictory elements which sent mixed signals.

One month later, Mr. Chen added definition to his hints. While falling short of clearly recognizing the one-China policy requisite to Beijing for initiating dialogue, he has alluded (within the context of Taiwanese political pressures) a shift from his previous position. Mr. Chen has even put some cards on the table. “Taiwan completely recognizes the principles of China’s one-China policy position but we call for the other side of the strait the Republic of China existing as a reality.”

But what does Mr. Chen mean by recognizing the “reality” of the Republic of China? Beijing should seek clarification before responding.

Suggest adding the words “historic reality.” The Kuomintang, which set up the Republic of China in 1911, recognized one China and never differed with the Communist Party on the issue. Can Mr. Chen, a former independence radical, now push for unity? Sound unlikely? Remember ardent anti-communist Richard Nixon visited Mao Zedong (???), ending decades of embargo and initiating the normalization of Sino-US relations.

So will Mr. Chen be the one to initiate dialogue with Beijing? Brokering unification remains sensitive in Taiwan. If this is his intention, he must maneuver many local factional interests in Taiwan. He also needs to build credibility with Beijing, which does not trust him.

So recognizing one-China may need several rounds of evasive language before his key can unlock the door to restart dialogue. From Beijing’s view such flip-flopping may sound insincere. But given Taiwan’s nasty local politics, maybe Mr. Chen’s reputation for about-facing is exactly what is needed.

Laurence Brahm is a global activist, international mediator, political columnist and author. He is the leading advocate of a fresh development paradigm - The Himalayan Consensus - an innovative approach to development.

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