Written by Laurence Brahm - Published by South China Morning Post on 03/27/2007

Economist and South China Morning Post columnist Laurence Brahm this month spent time Nepal’s Maoists providing economic policy advice. In the second of three articles, he says there is a growing sense that the Maoists’ rise to power is inevitable.

In recent weeks, Pushpa Kamal Dashal – better known as Prachanda – and Baburam Bhattarai – respectively the Mao Zedong and Zhou Enlai of Nepal’s Maoists – have presided over massive political rallies that culminated in a day-long demonstration in a park in central Kathmandu on March 16.

The rally, featuring revolutionary songs, dance and speeches, was unprecedented, and a potent demonstration of the Maoists’ political power and networking abilities.

The imagery was equally vivid: a flame lit by Prachanda for martyrs who died fighting the monarchy; village girls dancing in a fusion of traditional and revolutionary gestures; and guerillas demonstrating karate and knife moves to the beat of drums amid a sea of red flags and hundreds of thousands of demonstrators.

The inescapable conclusion is that Nepal’s Maoists are poised to take power – either by popular election, or, if voting is derailed by royalists or external interference, by force. Either way, they are organized, resourceful and determined.

Nepal has seen seven political parties in addition to the Maoists, who are seeking legitimate entry into a coalition interim government, which will draft a constitution to be followed by elections for a new parliament. But no other party leader could stage a demonstration as impressive as the Maoists or command onto the streets such numbers. There is a growing sense that the Maoists’ rise to power is inevitable. The only question is when and by what path?

The March 16 rally was organized by the Newar National Liberation Front, a grass-roots organization under the Maoists (Newar is an ethnic group concentrated around the Kathmandu Valley).

The Maoist forces consist of nine “liberation fronts,” organized around either a caste or ethnic group. This makes the Maoists representatives of these once-marginalized social and economic interests that they have empowered politically through organization and collective strength.

For example, 40 per cent of the Maoists are women. Traditionally encumbered and subservient, women have been empowered by the Maoists and in turn given strong support nationwide.

“People respect Prachanda,” said one Maoist at the rally as dancers paraded past the chairman seated on a stage with Dr Bhattarai. “They feel he is our leader.”

Prachanda can work a crowd and speak to their aspirations. “We can achieve leadership of the country,” Prachanda said. “But we support doing so through negotiating with the other parties and absorbing different trends into a coalition.

“The peace process can resolve poverty, do away with feudalism and assure sustainable peace for sustainable government.” As for the success of the peace process, Prachanda is aware that “obstacles are there.” “The US administration is the main one, while the feudal class within our country remains the other. They are both aligned and trying their best to sabotage the election process,” he said. “The US media does not try to understand us. The US administration has been trying to sabotage the peace process by preventing the Maoists from participating in the coalition government.

The US has labeled the Maoists terrorists. The irony is, the Maoists have volunteered to surrender their arms to the UN, enter mainstream politics in a coalition within a multiparty democratic framework, embrace religious freedom and adopt market economics. But the US still refuses to communicate with them.

“After one year of this peace process they [the US and Nepali royalists] have tried to sabotage this process,” explains Prachanda. “We are going to manage anyway. We will succeed, either through negotiations or armed struggle. We can only ask why is the US leadership against us?”

The election of an interim government, scheduled for March 17, was postponed at the eleventh hour at the request of US diplomats pressuring the current government and monarchy, fearing Maoists might enter the government popularly.

Ominously, Prachanda had warned that failure to hold elections might force the Maoists to return to the jungle.

Dr Bhattarai believes: “The US will continue to postpone to keep the monarchy and ultimately rely on the royal army.”

Ironically, the Maoists could respond to continued delays by themselves interfering in the electoral process, with mass protests.

“Millions of people will take part,” Prachanda warned. “And the leader of the masses will be the Maoists. Through multimedia controlled by the US leadership, they have waged a war of massive propaganda against us. Unfortunately [for them] based on Nepal’s concrete conditions, they will not be able to control our mass movement.”

Laurence Brahm is a global activist, international mediator, political columnist and author. He is the leading advocate of a fresh development paradigm - The Himalayan Consensus - an innovative approach to development.

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